But many of these reservist notices circulating online are standard conscription notices – Russia has a biannual conscription, which begins in spring and runs for around two months. As Russia’s supply lines wear thin and its offensive pushes on to Odessa, there may be background efforts underway to mobilise fresh troops in a limited capacity, with anecdotal reports on social media suggesting that some reservists have been called to service. He did not make any mention of victory, or proffer statements that could have been framed as a potential end to the war – nor did he include specific references to Mariupol, which Russian forces have as yet failed to take.īut there were also no allusions to significant escalation or mass mobilisation. In the end, Putin gave us little to go on. But all of these symbols were immaterial in comparison with Putin’s much-vaunted speech. Since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, foreign representation at the parade has become increasingly contentious – in 2017, only Moldovan President Igor Dodon attended. There was notably no foreign representation, which was explained away by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov – in case anyone might take it as evidence of Russia’s diplomatic isolation – by maintaining that this Victory Day was not a jubilee year. There was time for somewhat macabre photo opportunities, including Putin laying flowers at monuments to ‘heroic cities’ of the Second World War, including Kyiv and Odessa, as the fighting around Mariupol and the strategic Azov port continues unabated. As expected, this year, much of Russia’s military hardware was either irreparably damaged or in use at the front, and so the display was less impressive than in previous years. An excessive focus on timing reflects a desire to exert a semblance of control, and our reliance on such symbols highlights how little we are able to penetrate the thinking of the Russian leadership in a useful way.Įvery year, Moscow uses narratives around Victory Day and its accompanying parades to showcase its military hardware, as well as to emphasise existential threats to the country.
None of these things happened on the day, and Putin’s speech was devoid of any signals that might have helped to divine some sort of meaning from an increasingly brutal war. The run-up to Russia’s annual military display, which commemorates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War, was filled with anticipation and speculation: whether President Vladimir Putin would use this as an opportunity to escalate by declaring the ‘special operation’ a war and announcing a full-blown conflict, or perhaps announce a limited victory instead, recognising some of the Russian-held southern parts of Ukraine as independent statelets. In the end, expectations that the Victory Day parade in Moscow might tell us something about the likely course of the Ukraine war were dashed.
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